Take the stock market as an example. In recent years, the relatively large volatility we have seen is about 50% - 70%. That is to say, the total market value of the stock market may fall by 50% - 70% from the peak value in a bear market. In the precious metal market, the relatively large volatility is about 50% - 70%.

Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) fell the most in bear markets in previous years, probably more than 90%. For example, Ethereum fell from the peak of nearly $1400 to the lowest of $80 in the last bull market, with a drop of more than 90%.

With a bull market pushing up the market value of bitcoin and Ethereum, on the one hand, there will be more and more long-term investors, so its bottom will be higher and higher; on the other hand, it will need more and more capital to rise, so its rise will be more and more difficult. So their future volatility (that is, the decline in the bear market) will be smaller under the influence of this factor.

Due to the increasing strength of US dollar water release, every time US dollar water release, the biggest beneficiaries must be American institutional investors. When these institutional investors get the money, they will use it to buy assets, and bitcoin will be the target of more and more institutions in the future. This is a powerful driving force to stimulate the rise of bitcoin. Therefore, under the influence of this factor, the volatility of bitcoin and Ethereum will increase.

Therefore, the volatility of bitcoin in the future will be affected by two important factors, one is the growing market value, the other is the degree of water release of the US dollar. These two factors are contradictory. The first one will reduce the volatility, and the second one will raise their rising space in the bull market, which in turn will increase the volatility.

But overall, bitcoin's future volatility in US dollar terms may be smaller, but it may still reach 30% - 50%.

(2021-4-7)