After reaching a high of $58000 in February, bitcoin finally hit a record high of $61800 on March 14 after more than half a month's adjustment. Moreover, glassnode provides a set of data, and the number of addresses holding 0.01 BTCs or more has exceeded 8.9 million. I think this may mean two problems. One is that more and more people are paying attention to bitcoin. The other is that the risk of bitcoin is being released. Either way, it means that bitcoin is entering a relatively good development.

Although I have repeatedly stressed that the risk of bitcoin is very high, it is undeniable that the longer the delay, the more favorable for the development of bitcoin. Of course, the biggest risk of bitcoin still comes from the change of national policy. If there are too many adverse news about bitcoin on the policy side, then the prospect of bitcoin is absolutely worrying. However, the attitude of many countries in the world towards bitcoin is not clear, and even a little ambiguous. For example, some countries are acquiescing in issuing bitcoin funds. This is the typical use of ordinary people's money to speculate bitcoin, but there is no way, everyone has a gambling psychology.

If the policy remains unchanged, the price of bitcoin will be immeasurable after the risk is released

First of all, let's talk about the risk release of bitcoin. Now the value of bitcoin has not been fully demonstrated, and the risk of holding bitcoin is still very high. However, as more and more bitcoin funds join and more and more people hype bitcoin, the risk of bitcoin will continue to release. Because bitcoin has some consumption in the process of continuous trading, such as paying maintenance fees for miners. Because the total amount of bitcoin is constant, this part of the cost will be passed on to the cost of bitcoin.

There is also the cost of bitcoin in the process of speculation, just like the percentage of a casino. Although the service charge of bitcoin transaction is very low, it still needs to be consumed. As time goes on, the price of bitcoin will naturally increase as the cost increases. This value may be pushed to a very high price. In this process, because of the cost, people who hold bitcoin do not want it to depreciate. This may be used to describe the interest chain formed by bitcoin, which is also a process of bitcoin releasing risks.

(2021-3-21)